* forecast 27.12.2024

cd "D:\Forecast Bundestag 2025 Mary"

* use forecast_5_official

use forecast_5_official, clear

********************************************
* Analysis
********************************************

***************************************
* Final Model a: Model 27a

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1 ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_27a

* Final Model b: Model 27b

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1 ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw i.land_enc if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_27b

* exporting table

esttab model_27a model_27b using "model_27.rtf", label r2 ar2 ///
b(%5.3f) scalars("F" "rmse") se nogaps replace

**************************
* Incumbency testing
**************************

* Model 28 FE: (model 22 b plus incumbency and interaction with GDP)

tab1 cdu_incumbent 
tab2 year cdu_incumbent

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1 cdu_incumbent ///
c.gdp_growth_lag1#cdu_incumbent ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw i.land_enc if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_28

* Model 29 FE: (GDP only if CDU in power, incomplete interaction)

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1#cdu_incumbent ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw i.land_enc if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_29

* Model 30 FE: incumbent only

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1 cdu_incumbent ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw i.land_enc if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_30

* Model 31: basic model (no FE) plus incumbency interaction

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1 cdu_incumbent ///
c.gdp_growth_lag1#cdu_incumbent ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_31 

* Model 32: basic model (GDP only if CDU in power, incomplete interaction)

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1#cdu_incumbent ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_32

* Model 33: basic model (incumbent only)

regress union c.gdp_growth_lag1 cdu_incumbent ///
andere ///
kanzler_cdu_minus_spd cdu_ltw if /// 
first_election_east == 0

estimates store model_33

* exporting table, additional incumbency tests

esttab model_30 model_29 model_28 ///
model_33 model_32 model_31 using "model_28_33.rtf", label r2 ar2 ///
b(%5.3f) scalars("F" "rmse") se nogaps replace

